Sino-us trade friction accelerates the adjustment of China's textile and garment export structure

In the first quarter, China's textile and garment exports reached 385.21 billion yuan, up 3.3 percent year-on-year.Of this, the export of textiles reached 183.87 billion yuan, up 9.3%;Clothing exports totaled 20.34 billion yuan, down 1.6%."In January, textile exports hit their highest level since September last year.Due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the "export rush", the export of textile clothing was cut in half in February, hitting a new low since February 2017.In march, textile garment exports were strong, reversing the double-digit decline in exports in the previous two months, and strongly driving the recovery of overall export growth in the first quarter and showing a slight increase.Yu xiaohong, an analyst with zhongyu information, said that exports in each month of the first quarter were in a state of sharp fluctuations, but the overall textile and garment exports still showed a good development trend.

"Against the backdrop of the slowdown in global economic and trade, China's textile clothing exports will continue to come under pressure.In the first quarter, overseas buyers waited and waited, and some large international buyers adjusted their strategic layout, requiring Chinese manufacturing and processing enterprises to shift some production capacity to southeast Asia and other places in advance."Yu xiaohong said that in the future, clothing exports may continue to decline, and the corresponding supply chain materials supporting textile exports are expected to catch up with clothing exports.At present, China's textile and garment market is relatively dependent on exports.According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, China's textile and apparel exports exceeded 270 billion us dollars, while the domestic retail sales of textile and apparel were around 200 billion us dollars.The United States is the largest textile and apparel exporter in China, among which the pure cotton textile and apparel exported to the United States accounts for about 17% of the total export value of China's pure cotton textile and apparel.

"The tariff imposed by the United States on textile and apparel will directly increase the export cost of China's textile and apparel, and weaken the price competitiveness of related products." The textile and apparel industry in Southeast Asian countries, mainly Vietnam, has developed rapidly in recent years, and will probably occupy part of the textile and apparel market share of China's exports to the United States in the future, according to Zhongyu information analysts.

The escalation of trade frictions between China and the United States has also directly accelerated the devaluation of the RMB. In the first month since Trump announced the tax increase in April, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from 6.7 to about 6.9. Since the beginning of Sino-US trade frictions in March 2018, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from 6.3 to about 6.9. Zhongyu information analysts warned that currency depreciation could temporarily boost exports of products, but the sharp depreciation of currencies in Argentina, Turkey and other countries against the US dollar triggered the financial crisis, which led to the deterioration of the economic situation, and the long-term impact of rapid currency depreciation on the market should not be underestimated.

At present, the structural adjustment of China's textile and apparel industry is accelerating. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross profit of China's textile and apparel industry dropped from 12.14% at the end of 2012 to 10.16% at the end of 2018. In the textile and apparel industry, the gross interest rate has continued to decline under the trend of rising labor costs and environmental protection costs. In 2018, the gross interest rate has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 10 years. The number of textile enterprises with annual revenue of more than 20 million yuan has also dropped from more than 22,000 in March 2011 to more than 19,000 at the end of 2018. The fierce competition has accelerated the trend of textile enterprises to "go small to stay large" and factory relocation.

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