Overview of my country's textile and apparel foreign trade in the first quarter of 2021

Overview of my country's textile and apparel foreign trade in the first quarter of 2021
——There are joys and worries, but more confidence!
hSource: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles

The overall performance of my country’s textile and apparel exports in the first quarter was stable, with a year-on-year growth of 43.7%, and the export value exceeded the same period in 2019, with an average growth of 8.7% over the two years. However, the current external environment has become more severe and complex, with major events happening frequently in just three months since the beginning of the year. The epidemic has not yet ended, market demand has not stabilized, the turmoil in Myanmar has caused damage to Chinese investment companies in Myanmar, the continuous fermentation of Xinjiang’s cotton problem, the appreciation of the renminbi, and the skyrocketing price of raw materials have all seriously adversely affected my country’s exports. In the absence of a stable market environment and trading environment, coupled with a year-on-year base increase, the export performance in the second quarter will be weaker than that in the first quarter, the growth rate will slow down, and the year-on-year trend will tend to fall.

At present, the epidemic has been effectively contained in our country. The vaccination work in our country has been carried out in an orderly manner. The country has accumulated more than 200 million doses of vaccination. The United States and other developed countries are also promoting vaccination. However, the vaccination situation in some developing countries, including India, is poor. It will take time for the global recovery to occur. It is estimated that it will take 1 to 2 years for the world to get back on track.

The epidemic has magnified unfavorable factors in international politics and economy, triggered potential contradictions at all levels, and caused the continuous occurrence of black swan incidents, which has caused certain adverse effects on my country's textile and apparel industry. However, the epidemic has also carried out an inspection and reshuffle of various industries around the world, which fully proves the resilience and stability of my country's textile and apparel industry, and further strengthens the development confidence of the industry and enterprises. The current epidemic is recurring in some countries, which has hindered the reverse flow of orders that has just appeared. Orders in key markets such as Europe, the United States, and Japan will once again delay the transfer speed, and more will be transferred to my country.

Chinese enterprises should seize the opportunity to consolidate and then expand their market shares in developed countries and slow down the speed of industrial transfer. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States and the situation of vaccination, grasp the direction and change trend of the big market, and adjust production and trade strategies in a timely manner to prepare for the post-epidemic era and seize opportunities.

Export value grew rapidly in the first quarter

In the first quarter, my country’s textile and apparel trade volume was US$73.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Among them, exports were 66.52 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 43.7%; imports were 6.86 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 12.1%, and the accumulated trade surplus was 59.67 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 48.5%. In March, the textile and apparel trade volume was 22.08 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. Among them, exports were 19.35 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 22.7%; imports were 2.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 18.5%, and the month's trade surplus was 16.62 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.4%.

The first quarter of last year was an outbreak of the epidemic in my country, and exports fell into a trough for a while. Under the influence of factors such as a low base number, in the first quarter of this year, exports rebounded in an all-round way, achieving rapid growth, an increase of more than 40%. Due to the special circumstances of last year, when looking at this year's data, comparisons need to be made from multiple perspectives and periods.

Compared with 2019, textile and apparel exports in the first quarter of this year increased by 18.1%, of which textiles increased by 19.4%, and clothing increased by 17%; from the two-year average growth rate, textile and apparel exports increased by 8.7%, of which textiles increased by 9.2%, and clothing increased by 9.2%. An increase of 8.2%; from the month-on-month comparison, textiles and apparel fell by 3.3% compared with February, of which textiles increased by 7.1% and apparel fell by 12.1%. The growth of textiles has not declined, and clothing has begun to fall.

EU market demand rebounded most significantly

In the more than a year since the global epidemic has continued, some changes have taken place in the structure of my country's textile and apparel export market. The market share of some developed countries has increased, such as the United States, Japan, and Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. In addition, India's upward trend is obvious. In the first quarter, exports to India increased by 65%, and India's share of my country's export market rose from 1.7% in 2019 to 2%. At the same time, the proportion of some of the original major export markets has dropped significantly, such as Russia and Hong Kong, China, especially Hong Kong, China. The decline in exports to Hong Kong, China in the first quarter fell by 11.4%. It is the only market in the top 30 that has seen a decline. .

The United States is currently my country’s largest export market, and its exports to the United States have surpassed the 27 EU countries. In the first quarter, my country’s exports of textiles and apparel to the United States were US$11.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 81.7% and an increase of 28.2% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity knitting and woven clothing increased by 48.1%, a decrease of 5% from 2019, and it has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level.

In the first quarter, my country’s textile and apparel exports to the EU were US$10.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51% and a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. Among them, the key commodity knitted garments increased by 39.2%, an increase of 16.6% over 2019.

In the first quarter, my country’s textile and apparel exports to Japan were US$5.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.6% and an increase of 8.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity knitted garments increased by 14.9%, a decrease of 6.2% from 2019.

In the first quarter, my country’s textile and apparel exports to ASEAN were US$10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. Among them, key commodity yarn fabrics increased by 22.7%, an increase of 0.6% over 2019.

Due to the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic, although the share of Chinese products in key markets has fallen from last year's high, it has not continued to decline. Currently, it remains stable or fluctuating slightly. From January to February, the United States imported 20.02 billion US dollars from the world, an increase of 7.9%, imports from China increased by 35%, and China accounted for 32.2%, of which textiles accounted for 38.4% and clothing accounted for 29.8%, both higher than in 2020 Over the same period, but lower than the same period in 2019. From January to February, Japan’s imports from China accounted for 56.2%, of which textiles and clothing accounted for 59.2% and 55.2%, respectively, exceeding the levels of the same period last year and 2019.

The growth rate of clothing exports exceeds that of textiles

In the first quarter, with the slow recovery of consumer demand in major markets, clothing exports began to accelerate, and the growth rate exceeded that of textiles. Clothing and textiles increased by 47.5% and 40% year-on-year respectively.

As the key anti-epidemic materials, masks and protective clothing are still in a rapid growth stage in the first quarter (increased by 145% and 225.6% respectively), the actual situation of textile and clothing exports can only be seen after the anti-epidemic materials are stripped. After removing masks, textile exports increased by 31.5% year-on-year and 8.6% year-on-year; after removing protective clothing, clothing exports increased by 44.5% year-on-year and 14.3% year-on-year. In terms of product categories, the export of needle-woven garments in apparel increased by 36.7% year-on-year and 7.4% year-on-year, while yarns and fabrics in textiles increased by 15.8% and 23.5% year-on-year. Increased by 0.7%, yarn decreased by 0.8%.

In March last year, my country began to export anti-epidemic materials on a large scale, and it has maintained a year of rapid growth. In March of this year, the export value of epidemic prevention materials was still at a high level, but the growth rate gradually declined. The export of masks and protective clothing increased by 5.8% and 96% respectively that month, which was significantly lower than the previous growth level. Starting from the second quarter, the export of epidemic prevention materials will show a year-on-year negative growth.

Outstanding export performance in central and western provinces and cities

In the first quarter, all 31 provinces, cities (districts) across the country, except Tibet, achieved rapid growth, and the performance of the central and western regions remained outstanding. The eastern, central, western and northeastern provinces increased by 41.5%, 79.1%, 52.3% and 7.9% respectively. From the perspective of a single month, the growth rate of exports in various regions in March dropped significantly compared with the previous two months. Among the top five export provinces and cities, the growth rates of Zhejiang and Jiangsu shrank to single digits, while Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian also all declined to varying degrees.

Apparel imports have a clear growth trend

In sharp contrast with exports, textile and apparel imports in March still showed a month-on-month upward trend. In the same month, textile and apparel imports increased by 18.5% year-on-year and 58.7% month-on-month. The growth is mainly driven by clothing. Under the epidemic, purchasing high-end consumer goods such as imported clothing has become the first choice for people who cannot shop abroad. Clothing imports increased by 56.8% in the same month (the imports of light industrial cosmetics, shoes, luggage and bags also increased by more than 50% during the same period) In the first quarter, clothing imports achieved a cumulative increase of 52.7%. Imports of fabrics and finished products in textiles all declined. Yarns, mainly cotton yarns, kept growing. In the first quarter, the cumulative import volume and value of cotton yarn increased by 21.5% and 21.2% respectively, and the average import price increased by 7.6%.

Cotton imports continue to grow at a high level

In the first quarter, cotton imports grew rapidly, with a total of 971,000 tons imported from the world, an increase of 58.2% over the first quarter of last year. Among them, the United States is the largest source of imports, with a total of 430,000 tons imported from the United States, an increase of 2.5 times, and the proportion of US cotton is as high as 44.3%. Brazil and India are behind the United States. Burkina Faso ranked fourth, becoming the new main source of my country's cotton imports.

In March, driven by the drop in commodity prices, domestic and foreign cotton prices showed a downward trend. The operating rate of textile enterprises remained at a high level, and market purchases and sales were smooth. Enterprises took advantage of the decline in cotton prices to replenish inventory, raw material inventories rose slightly, commercial inventories continued to decline, Xinjiang cotton transportation increased, and Xinjiang inventories fell sharply. On March 31, the central reserve cotton rotation ended. Because the price difference between internal and external cotton has not met the conditions, the reserve cotton rotation has not been started. According to the survey results of the China Cotton Association, the country’s intended cotton planting area was 43,675,500 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%, and the rate of decrease expanded by 4.4 percentage points from the previous period.