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HCS Chemical fiber industry dynamics
This week, crude oil fell from a high level, and PTA and ethylene glycol futures both fell. The support of HCS polyester costs also became "pale and weak". The profit margin of the original hollow gradually increased. The demand has shrunk further, the inquiries on the field have decreased, and the downstream filling manufacturers have more raw materials in the early stage, and the purchase intention of the primary hollow has been significantly reduced. In addition, the logistics and transportation in some areas are slow, the primary hollow HCS fiber enterprises are blocked from shipping, and the pressure of accumulating warehouses has appeared. , the focus of market transactions fell. As a substitute for the original hollow, the recycled hollow, its coexistence is the same as that of the original hollow, so the market transaction price of the recycled hollow also declines. The difference is that some recycled HCS fiber manufacturers maintain stable quotations, and the transaction is discussed one by one.
It is not difficult to see from Figure 1 and Figure 2 that the same period in previous years was also a trend of price decline for hollow chemical fibers, and the price increase in February was mostly due to the boost in the cost of polyester, and the terminal demand did not improve, so this time. The price trend of hollow chemical fiber is also reasonable.
market outlook
From the perspective of cost, the trend of crude oil is unclear or fluctuated widely. The price of primary hollow dual raw materials may fluctuate with crude oil. The price of recycled hollow cost-side bottle chips is also more stable, and the cost-side support is generally beneficial.
From the perspective of supply, a few recycled hollow manufacturers will resume production next week, and the supply will increase slightly. There is no obvious change in the start of the original hollow enterprises, but most hollow enterprises have high inventory. All in all, the supply of hollow chemical fiber will be sufficient, which is bad. .
From the demand side, it is difficult for the terminal demand to improve. In addition, it is currently in the off-season of hollow chemical fiber, and the industry is more pessimistic. There are not many orders from downstream filling manufacturers, and the inventory of raw materials (hollow chemical fiber) is sufficient. The demand for hollow chemical fibers will remain rigid, which is bad.
To sum up, under the negative expectations of many aspects next week, hollow chemical fiber enterprises are more likely to run at cost. If there is no major change in the cost side, the demand will remain sluggish and restrict the price, production and sales of hollow chemical fiber. The goods are the main ones, the transaction or the profit margin is maintained, and the market price range is maintained.
