dope dyed color fiber situation in Q3
As of September 25, 2023, the average price of dope dyed color fiber in the East China market for the third quarter was 7452 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14% compared to the second quarter of 2023 and a decrease of 4.10% compared to the third quarter of 2022. The reason for the month on month increase is due to strong cost support. WTI crude oil has risen from $70 at the end of the second quarter to around $90 now, effectively driving up the price of
dope dyed color fiber raw materials. Cost increases dominate the market, while
dope dyed color fiber production enterprises and downstream factories are gradually increasing, and the supply and demand pattern continues to weaken the price increase under the dual increase of supply and demand. The reason for the year-on-year decline is due to a decrease in raw material prices compared to last year, as well as a significant increase in
polyester staple fiber supply and weak demand, which has dragged down prices due to oversupply.
What are the price drivers of
dope dyed color fiber in the fourth quarter? How do costs and supply and demand affect the market, and what will the price trend be? The analysis will be conducted from the following aspects.
Weakening raw material costs support declining prices of
dope dyed color fiber
From the perspective of PTA, the main raw material for
dope dyed color fiber , a new production capacity of 2.5 million tons of PTA is planned to be launched in Hainan in October, further increasing supply pressure. However, the impact of downstream polyester demand peak season is becoming increasingly weak, and concerns are expressed about the decline in terminal loom startup rate and polyester operating load. From the historical data of PTA in the past 13 years, the probability of PTA market decline from October to December is relatively high, and it is estimated that the PTA market will fall in October to December. From the perspective of ethylene glycol, a byproduct of
dope dyed color fiber , the ethylene glycol maintenance equipment has been restarted in the fourth quarter, and the supply volume has gradually rebounded to a high level. The supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a cumulative state, and the spot pressure of ethylene glycol will gradually increase. It is expected that the overall price of ethylene glycol will remain weak. Therefore, the expected weakening of
dope dyed color fiber raw material costs in the fourth quarter has put some pressure on
polyester staple fiber prices.
The increase in production capacity has a significant impact on the supply of
dope dyed color fiber
As of the fourth quarter of 2023, there are still 680000 tons of new production capacity planned for
dope dyed color fiber . Among them, 130000 tons in Yizheng area and 300000 tons in Yangzhou area are highly likely to be put into production, with an estimated time of the end of October and 250000 tons in Xinjiang area by the end of 2023.
