Analysis of the price increase of the regenerated hollow at the beginning of the month

Demand side: increased rigid demand, limited sustainability

At the beginning of September, although it was the beginning of the traditional peak season, the terminal demand performance was not good this year, especially the few foreign trade orders, so it was difficult for the overall demand to improve, which is also the main factor restraining the price increase of recycled hollow. However, in August, the downstream start-up load of the regenerated hollow was low. Most manufacturers were temporarily suspended due to the high temperature, and the demand for the regenerated hollow was sluggish. After the weather turned cooler in September, the downstream start-up load increased, and the rigid demand for the regenerated hollow increased significantly. The improvement in production and sales has boosted confidence in the market, and some manufacturers have begun to raise prices.

Supply side: obvious destocking in the early stage, increasing confidence in price support

Affected by the high temperature weather in August, the recyclable hollow manufacturers' operating load dropped by 10 percentage points, making the inventory of the regenerated hollows in a state of continuous decline. As of the beginning of September, most of the regenerated hollow manufacturers' inventory was about 20 days, and the northern manufacturers' inventory was more than a week. within. Although the start-up load of recycled hollow materials increased in September, the low inventory of manufacturers contributed to the price increase.

Cost side: the price of bottle flakes rises, pushing up the price of regeneration

In August, the start-up load of the cleaning plant declined. In addition, the profit of the cleaning plant in August was low, the shipment intention was not large, and the purchasing power of the recycled hollow was weak, which led to the increase in the start-up load of the recycled hollow in September and the stock of raw materials in the previous period. The consumption is obvious, and the intention to purchase bottle flakes increases, which boosts the price of bottle flakes. Up to now, the reference price of three-dimensional cold water blue and white tablets is around 4800-5200 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.83%, which has a strong support for the cost of recycled hollow, and compressed profit margins, making recycled hollow manufacturers forced to raise prices, market transactions The center of gravity moved up.

Market outlook forecast: short-term stability, shipment is still the main idea

At present, the growth rate of orders from downstream manufacturers is not fast, and it is still the mainstream idea to purchase in the short term; the number of wool bottles at the cost end is average, and the price of supporting bottle chips remains strong;