textile market ushered in a new test

in early September, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to around 70.95%, the lowest point in the past three years. Recently, new orders are placed slowly, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories continues to increase. It takes a long time for companies to digest these inventories. In addition, the sales inventory still needs profit support. Facing the weak operation of the chemical fiber market in the past two months, some weaving factories have to Moderately reduce the number of start-up units, and control the inventory to continue to rise. It is expected that during the double festival, the weaving market will hardly improve significantly. Some weaving factories or production holidays will continue to control production costs. After the double festival, if the vitality of the weaving market gradually recovers, the overall weaving operation rate may rebound moderately.

Jiangsu weaving enterprises adjust production, the follow-up of the weaving market can hardly be optimistic

According to Zhuochuang Information, some texturing and weaving enterprises in Rudong, Nantong and other places adjusted their production to the end of the month on September 10, and the capacity utilization rate of relevant enterprises is expected to be around 75% by then. Rudong is the second glove production base in the country, besides Gaomi, with a large number of small businesses. At the same time, weaving enterprises in northern Jiangsu such as Shuyang and Huai'an have temporarily adjusted production from September 15th. On the 16th, texturing and weaving enterprises in Siyang area began to adjust production, and related weaving enterprises in northern Jiangsu resumed The normal production time is temporarily uncertain. On the 18th, texturing and weaving companies in Taicang also began to adjust their production. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of some texturing and weaving companies will be around 60%, and this may last until the end of September.

Jiangsu Province is an important production and consumption area in my country's textile and apparel market. The upstream and downstream textile industries are highly concentrated. Changes in the production of local weaving enterprises also affect the fluctuations in the weaving market in my country. In October, the autumn and winter foreign trade orders will gradually be converted into next year’s spring and summer foreign trade orders. Domestic orders are also mostly small and tightly delivered autumn and winter fabric tail orders. The weaving factory will be under pressure to pay back at the end of the year. It is expected that the next weaving market may be It will stimulate the digestion of grey fabric inventory, thereby changing the market in the fourth quarter, but the follow-up weaving comprehensive operating rate may not show a continued upward trend.

Weak demand is transmitted upwards, the chemical fiber market may be "not busy in peak season"

Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated upward. The market prices of polyester raw materials, acrylonitrile and caprolactam have risen, and cost support has improved. However, most of the best-selling fabrics sold in the weaving market are stockpiled by traders in advance. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the foreign trade situation is showing up. The characteristics of weak textiles and hot clothing have led to unsatisfactory shipments in the weaving market, and the overall enthusiasm for stocking raw materials in weaving factories is not high.

Table 1 Summary of changes in the weaving market and subsequent impacts

Current market situation Follow-up impact
Cost support Crude oil fluctuates strongly, but chemical fiber market prices continue to be weak to keep up, and cost support is still good. If the raw material market continues to improve, it will be conducive to bargaining for new orders.
Grey cloth market There are few types of best-selling fabrics in the market, the stock of conventional fabric grey cloths is large, and the market shipment is slow, and the industry inventory is in a state of accumulation. Grey cloth inventory needs to be digested, and the pattern of oversupply in the market is temporarily difficult to improve, which will affect the liquidity of subsequent grey cloth sources and even drag down the price trend of grey cloth.
Order status Factory orders are mostly in the vicinity of 2 months, and less in 5-15 days. Some factories receive orders while producing. The start-up of domestic orders was slower than expected, but there is a gradual increase in the number of orders; the number of orders for export is decreasing, and it may be difficult to continue to improve in the future.
Raw material stocking Plants with a large stocking volume are around 1 month, some factories have 7-10 days for stocking raw materials, and some factories can take them on demand according to order requirements. The pressure to control production costs is still great, and the price of upstream raw materials has no continuous upward momentum for the time being. In addition, the follow-up orders are not sufficient, the production enthusiasm is average, and the weaving enterprises may not be willing to stock up in the future.
In the future, the shipments of nylon spinning are still good, and the demand for thick autumn and winter fabrics of conventional velvet will gradually increase. However, the inventory of the upstream and downstream industries in the textile industry chain needs to be digested for a long time. In addition, the export container is tight, and the freight rate will not increase. Improvement, the industry is expected to have a positive attitude towards shipments, and under the pressure of loss, weaving companies may be more cautious in receiving orders. The weak demand is transmitted upwards, and the chemical fiber market will not escape the "peak season not prosperous" market. Some chemical fiber factories may purchase according to downstream raw materials. Period, appropriate promotional shipments.

Because some chemical fiber factories are still in the stage of accumulation, it is not ruled out that under the pressure of shipments, some chemical fiber factories will continue to reduce production, reduce the operating load, adjust the market supply, and stabilize the market. In the fourth quarter, although the upstream chemical fiber market of the textile industry chain is still cost-driven, the weak downstream demand is transmitted from the bottom up, which will restrain the price increase of the upstream chemical fiber market in the textile industry chain. However, the concentration of chemical fiber factory production capacity is high. With a complete upstream and downstream industrial chain, strong cost control capabilities, and ability to withstand rising costs and inventory pressures, weaving factories will also face certain pressures in the fourth quarter.