Acrylic fiber: The theoretical profit space is rich after the first quarter fell in a narrow range

In the first quarter, the theoretical profit margin of acrylic fiber factories is around 3,000 yuan/ton and above, which is inseparable from the changes in the supply and demand pattern of the entire industry and the fluctuation of upstream raw materials. In the first quarter, the new production capacity of raw acrylonitrile was 390,000 tons. The supply side of the industry was gradually relaxed. After the overall price fell, the price fluctuated at a low level, and the cost pressure of acrylic fiber factories was significantly weakened. In addition, in terms of supply, since 2021, one acrylic fiber plant in East China has been converted into production, and one set has been shut down for a long time. The actual production capacity of the acrylic fiber industry has been reduced by more than 100,000 tons. In the first quarter, due to the slow pace of logistics and transportation in some areas, manufacturers' products The slowdown in sales has stimulated downstream factories to purchase supplies from other acrylic fiber factories. Most acrylic fiber factories have acceptable production and sales rhythms, and the theoretical profitability of manufacturers is huge.

In the first quarter, the theoretical profitability of my country's acrylic fiber factories was relatively abundant, and the manufacturers were more motivated to start construction, and the output of acrylic fibers increased significantly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. According to statistics, my country's acrylic fiber output in the first quarter exceeded 130,000 tons, an increase of about 30,000 tons compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Although the overall supply has increased significantly, due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the pace of production and sales in some factories is acceptable.

Focus on logistics changes in the second quarter, no significant price changes are expected

Supply side: In the second quarter, a set of equipment in East China has an overhaul plan, paying attention to changes in logistics and transportation, and supply side support still exists.

Demand side: At present, the price of acrylic fiber is relatively high, and the downstream purchasing attitude is cautious.

Cost: There is no significant change in the price of raw material acrylonitrile, but the acrylic fiber factory is theoretically profitable, and the cost is difficult to form a substantial support for the price of acrylic fiber.

To sum up, the current acrylic fiber factories are still very motivated to start construction, and the manufacturers are theoretically profitable. In the second quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in logistics and transportation in various places. The downstream is cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials, and the cost support is limited. It is expected that there is no significant change in the price of acrylic fiber for the time being.